Roncero explains why Mbappé will win the Ballon d’Or.

Journalist Tomás Roncero is convinced that Kylian Mbappé could take advantage of the battle between Rodri and Lamine Yamal to win this year’s Ballon d’Or.

The race for football’s most prestigious individual award is entering its final stages, and Mbappé remains firmly among the leading contenders. The Real Madrid forward faces strong competition from several players, including Lamine Yamal and Rodri, who could potentially attract votes from a similar group of voters.

According to Roncero, that situation may ultimately work in Mbappé’s favor. The well-known Spanish journalist believes that support linked to Barcelona could be divided between Yamal and Rodri, reducing the chances of either player collecting a dominant share of the vote.

“This is what is going to give Mbappé the Ballon d’Or, because what Barça have done is split a vote that was clearly going towards Rodri,” Roncero explained on Cadena SER.

“From one day to the next, by giving Lamine Yamal clear institutional support at club level, the vote — let’s call it the ‘pro-Barça’ vote — is going to be divided between Rodri and Lamine.”

A situation similar to Vinicius in 2024

Roncero compared the current race to what happened in 2024. Vinicius Junior was widely considered one of the strongest candidates that year, but Rodri ultimately won the Ballon d’Or, while Jude Bellingham and Dani Carvajal finished third and fourth respectively.

According to Roncero, the presence of several Real Madrid players among the leading candidates prevented Vinicius from receiving the full support of voters who may otherwise have backed him.

“One of the reasons was that Vinicius, instead of receiving most of the Madrid vote, saw many people vote first for Bellingham and Carvajal. That dispersion of votes is what gave Rodri the Ballon d’Or in 2024,” he said.

The journalist also pointed to the 2010 edition as another example of how divided votes can influence the final result. That year, Barcelona stars Xavi Hernández and Andrés Iniesta were both among the main candidates, but Lionel Messi eventually won the award.

For Roncero, history could therefore repeat itself if Rodri and Yamal take votes away from one another.

🚨 Kylian Mbappé: “I had a GREAT INDIVIDUAL YEAR, and I know that’s the most IMPORTANT criteria for the Ballon d’Or.

I was the TOP SCORER in all competitions.

I think it could be a good year for me, I FEEL IT DEEP DOWN.

I would be DISAPPOINTED to not win it. When a competitor… pic.twitter.com/ERbPznE7o5

— Madrid Xtra (@MadridXtra) September 21, 2026

Kane remains another major contender

However, Roncero warned that Mbappé, Rodri and Yamal are not the only players who should be considered serious candidates.

He also highlighted Harry Kane after another impressive season with Bayern Munich and a strong international campaign that saw his national team reach the semi-finals of the most recent World Cup.

“And we also have to be careful with Kane, because we tend to have a more Latin perspective, but the Anglo-Saxon vote could be important,” Roncero explained on El Larguero.

“In terms of statistics, Kane is not very far behind Mbappé.”

With several major candidates still in contention, Roncero believes the distribution of votes could prove just as important as individual performances when the final Ballon d’Or rankings are revealed.